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The outline of a new co-ordinated action plan for Afghanistan is emerging from the shadows - and it is likely to mean that British fighting troops leave the country much sooner than most have been predicting.
How quickly the plan can be implemented will depend on this week's elections for presidency and provincial councils. The elections have to be seen as credible, secure and viable.
The Taliban, in the south especially, have vowed to nullify the vote - threatening in their "night letters" even to murder those who carry the telltale-inked finger of one signed in to vote. But such violence this Thursday could backfire as Afghans are increasingly aware that they, not the international forces, are the main victims.
Last weekend the Taliban mounted a major suicide bombing at the gates of the Nato headquarters in Kabul. Of the seven dead and more than 60 seriously wounded, the majority were Afghan civilians. The murder of schoolteachers, including skinning their corpses, and the flaying of women disgust most Afghans.
The polls will be the first run and policed by Afghans since the fall of the Taliban in 2001. The last polls in 2004 and 2005 were run by the UN and manned by the International Security Assistance Force. So the vote and run-off in a fortnight is a milestone in constitutional credibility.
Shortly after the second round the new security action plan is to be unveiled by its lead architect, General Stanley McChrystal, the commander of American and ISAF forces. It will be based on accelerating the expansion and training of the Afghan army and police, protecting civilians in the most vulnerable areas - the south and borders with Pakistan - and a concentrated development programme.
Gen McChrystal, his immediate superior David Petraeus, the Afghanistan staff in the White House and the National Security Council have consulted widely, while Defence Secretary Robert Gates has been careful not to announce increased force numbers.
However, it is clear that American forces will be increased to about 80,000. But the Americans are expecting a substantial "buy-in" from their allies, the UK and Canada. Britain is being asked to contribute "what it can". The Government should agree to the their request for another 2,000 UK troops to serve for one year. The British should "deepen" efforts to bring development and security to Helmand, where most of the population live.
Under the McChrystal plan, there should be a surge of extra troops - to around 11,000 UK forces in Afghanistan - to the end of the year. They are set to be scaled back in 2011, with a planned withdrawal the year after.
Backing the surge now offers a real chance of bringing a new sense of stability, particularly in Helmand, and bringing our soldiers home in a year or two.
