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The final and decisive round of the PGA Championship last month unfolded in a manner few had predicted.
Tiger Woods, who firmly occupies the top spot in world golf rankings, lost his lead and came second.
Padraig Harrington, the defending champion and arguably Europe's best golfer, was in contention until he scored a quintuple bogey eight on a par-three hole.
And the unheralded Y E Yang, of South Korea, ranked 110th in the world, came from behind to win. In other words, America faded, Europe collapsed and Asia emerged.
These trends should sound familiar. Asia is coming out of the economic crisis relatively unscathed; the region as a whole is likely to grow this year by five per cent.
The US economy, meanwhile, continues to contract. More golf courses closed than opened in the US in 2008.
Europe is struggling even more: some countries' economies are still shrinking. Europe was at the core of 20th-century history; it will not be so in the 21st. Harrington's recent showing is a harbinger.
Golf, in fact, provides more insight into politics and economics than most people realise. Countries that have numerous golf courses tend to be friendlier toward the US.
Governments closing golf courses tend to be the most anti-American. Think of it as the fairway theory of history.
Anyone doubting this need only compare Vietnam and Venezuela. Vietnam, for years a bitter foe of the US, is now a friend.
The clearest evidence of how far things have changed may be the Ho Chi Minh Golf Trail, a route that connects more than half-a-dozen luxury golf courses and resorts (like its namesake, the golf trail runs north-south, but presumably the resemblance ends there).
On the other hand, Venezuela - led by hostile Hugo Chávez - has closed several courses and is threatening to shut down others.
Chávez recently delivered a tirade against golf, deriding it as "bourgeois". Or take the two Koreas: the closed North is reportedly home to just three courses, while democratic South Korea, a US ally, boasts no fewer than 234.
Chávez is right about one thing: golf is an expression of increased economic and political openness.
Ironically, Fidel Castro, the leader Chávez claims to admire most, appears to be moving in that direction. Cuba is developing golf courses, presumably to attract tourists.
If the golf theory is right, it is only a matter of time before the island becomes more open and more favorably inclined toward the US.
Meanwhile, China now has more than 300 courses, including no fewer than 12 at one club, the world's largest. The small number of golf courses in Russia and Ukraine is rather worrisome in this regard.
Golf is also a sign of normalcy. For two decades, one of the most dangerous pieces of real estate anywhere was Kashmir.
Five courses are now open in the beautiful valley. Peace between India and Pakistan may not be quite at hand but things do seem to be inching in the right direction.
Why is golf associated with so many positive trends? It is not just that the game tends to flourish in countries that welcome tourists.
Large numbers of golf courses reflect the emergence of a domestic middle class, the traditional foundation of democracy.
And they suggest a society where citizens not only enjoy leisure time but take basic security for granted.
What should all this mean for Washington? President Obama has created high-profile envoys for trouble spots such as the Middle East, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iran. Perhaps he should spend more time working on his golf.
Richard Haass is president of the US Council on Foreign Relations.
