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Labour is facing a general election hammer blow in London that will put more than a third of its sitting MPs in danger, Evening Standard research reveals today.
A “London Landslip” has seen a seven-point Labour lead in 2005 turn into a 12-point deficit.
If the 9.5 per cent swing was uniformly applied across London, a theoretical possibility, the outcome would be disastrous for Gordon Brown's hopes of a fourth term. Some 17 out of Labour's 44 seats would be lost to the Tories, who would win 40, up from 21.
Labour losses could include Dagenham, where former deputy leadership contender Jon Cruddas won with a majority of 7,605 in 2005.
The findings will shock party members gathering in Brighton this weekend for Labour's annual conference.
Ultra marginal seats like Battersea and Finchley and Golders Green, which have majorities under 200, would go. But a uniform swing would chip at seats hitherto regarded as fairly safe like
Dagenham and Rainham, which has been affected by boundary changes.
Mr Brown's leadership took a series of blows this week including a searing critique by former Home Secretary Charles Clarke, more dire national polls, the resignation of ministerial aide Stephen Hesford in protest at Lady Scotland being allowed to stay on, and a “snub” row overshadowing his trip to the US.
Cabinet minister Tessa Jowell delivered a fierce slapdown to Mr Clarke for his claim that she almost followed James Purnell into resigning to force out Mr Brown in June.
She calls the claim “utter rubbish” in another exclusive Evening Standard interview. But Mr Clarke returned to the attack this morning by claiming a clear majority of Cabinet ministers privately agree with him.
“Most of them agree with me”, he told the Eastern Daily Press. “Any other party in this situation would have dealt with it already. Any other leader in it would have departed.”
He predicted Mr Brown will go. “The polls are getting worse, and I see no improvement in his performance.”
At the 2005 election, Labour under Tony Blair performed better in Greater London than it managed nationally, winning by 39 per cent to the 32 per cent share achieved by former Tory leader Michael Howard. The result helped Mr Blair secure his place in history with a third term in office. But now the positions have reversed, with David Cameron enjoying a lead of 40 per cent to 23 per cent in Greater London.
The Liberal Democrats have not fared well either. Their share has fallen from 22 to 19 per cent. The analysis suggests they will lose Richmond Park and Sutton & Cheam.
The Evening Standard analysis is based on four months of the most recent polling data published by polling firm Populus, aggregated to produce reliable sample sizes for the regional trend.
Andrew Cooper, founder of Populus, said: “It is very much a worst case scenario because many sitting Labour MPs have a personal vote that would make a uniform swing unlikely.
“But it implies a massive shift in support from Labour to the Conservatives, not all that far short of the biggest national swing in post-war history, which was the 10.5 per cent swing to Labour in 1997.”
Reader views (58)
labour are a laughing stock, bungler brown has made a complete mess of everything he touches.
The SNP will win the election in Scotland and the dead hand of labour will be lifted from Scotland's throat.
I sincerely hope the folks of London and England get whom you vote for. this time round, labour in Scotland will not return a government you did not vote for.
Best wishes
A McL
- Angus Mcleod, Dundee, Scotland, EU
I have a very good idea of the politics of the Dagenham & Rainham constituency, as I have been walking the streets and knocking on the doors of voters to get their opinion.
A lot of things have changed since the last election, and from my perspective Jon Cruddas does not stand a chance, good news for me as I am the independent candidate standing against him.
The overwhelming sentiment in the area is that the constituents have been taken for granted, and that the party politicians represent their own careers and not the constituents interests.
- Gordon Kennedy, Dagenham UK
There is absolutely no prospect that I'm voting for Goldsmith. He's a rich boy who was parachuted into the seat and he's pumping shedloads of daddy's money into his campaign. He's allegedly green but is in a party that has consistently been rated the least green of all the major parties which doesn't suggest that he's too bothered about consistency.
I'm much happier with Liberal Democrat Susan Kramer who seems to be a just like her constituents and who is completely untouched by the expenses scandal.
- Paul, Richmond
Mark in Kingston, surprised by what you say. I moved to Richmond Park at the beginning of the year and I reckon Susan Kramer's doing an excellent job. Got very quick (and personalised) responses to my emails to her and bumped into her three or four times at various events. Not bumped into your boy Zac yet, but I guess there's time yet.
Difference seems to me to be the Lib Dems are getting stuck in to the local campaigning while the Tories are relying on national factors and the 'cult of Zac'.
Don't know about the secondary school issue. Not in my patch, but surely unless I'm missing something the funding must have come from either the Lib Dem Council or Labour government? Or did Zac pay for it himself?
- George, Kew, UK
We need a bloodless revolution. Vote out the party you have in your constituency, get a brand new bunch in and make it clear they are all on 'standby'
- Dugo, Christchurch, England
The county elections were held here a couple of months ago and labour went from a majority hold of 32 seats (total 64) to 3, the same number as the Liberals and BNP.
Just about says it all.
- Claire, Stone,UK
I guess creating unemployment and taxing every private economic activity to the ground and keeping police away from the streets might have something to do with it?
- Steveo, London NW1
Following the DPP's recent guidelines, can Mandelson just take Gordon to some suitable clinic in Switzerland ?
- Andrew, Hampton Hill
Looking forward to the ZaNuLab Conference with relish. In a way, a retro Nuremberg Trials show, with loads of bleating about: "I vas only following orders, zum Befehl!!!". "Fuer den englische Wirtsschaftwundervernichtung bin Ich nicht verantwortlich!!!"
For Gauleiter Braun, I think for you ze kareer ist ofer!!!
Gott zei Dank! Es lebe die Regierung!!!
PS: there is a rumour that these fopdoodles will replace the Internationale with Lili Marlene - more in keeping with their political characteristics...
- David Low, Cirencester, England
Roz - France - you're not making sense, too much French wine? You complain about being disenfranchised (because presumably you didn't register in time) and then in the next breath you say that local people should elect local representatives.... so you'd be disenfranchised once again! Sacre bleu!
- Richard, London
The funny thing is if they had, the EU constitution vote, AS PROMISED they may have got it through, if not they would be in less trouble. Signing us up for this has been the real treason. The money that now goes to prop up bankrupt Eurovision, would just about tide us over the present difficulty.
- Lightshaft, earnley UK
Why have the details of this poll not been published? Are we supposed to guess which 17 seats we're talking about?
- Emily, London, UK
You mean there are some people left who are going to still vote labour? Stop their benefits now!
- Stephen, London
have i got news for you!
it ain't just gonna happen in london.
as private frazer would say, 'there all doomed.'
- M.O'Brien, london.uk
There won't be a uniform swing at all...and the labour vote is holding up better in london than the rest of the south east..look at the European election results. Also there will be some surprises....let me be the first to predict that Darren Johnson of the Greens will pick up the Lewisham Deptford seat from Joan Ruddock. They had an excellent euro election result and now have a number of councillors, including Johnson in the borough. the tories and lib dems are nowhere in the consitituency - they are also very actively working there.
- Nobby The Psephological Geek, laaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaandon
We shall see. Labour have had their time. My Council tax has risen by over 100%. It is time for a big change but David and Boris make sure you stick to your promises.
- Macdangler, Wimbledon SW19
Vote UKIP or kiss this country goodbye,you have been warned!!.
- General Lee'Wright, Forgotten Britain
ROLL ON THE ELECTIONS! Lets gt rid of this pc ultra left thieves once and for all and regain control of our beloved England.
- Brandon Thomas, SW7
Doesn't matter who we vote in, we will governed by Europe and president Blair.
People in this country are sleep walking into a Federal Europe where democracy simply does not exist. We are already being governed by an unelected, unaccountable executive in Brussels.
Socialism lies at the heart of Europe and socialism is something we have never wanted in this country.
- Frank, Home Counties, England.
If Gordon Brown had a shred of decency he would call a general election as soon as possible,but we all know he won't and he doesn't.
- Jacob, Kentish Gulag 3
İ sometimes wonder at the british electorate?? the reason brown has not and will not go to the country is as plain as the nose on your face, after the irish vote yes to europe the labour spin will kick into gear the blair will rise from the ashes become the president of eussr and any british government will be redundant over night, all decisions will come from the eussr like it or lump it. how to win the next GE get out of the EU now and stop all immigration now simple manifesto really.
- Steve, England
@Andrew, London
I am one of Susan Kramer's constituents and quite frankly I do not think that she has worked hard for us. She did not get us the new secondary school in North Kingston (possibly one of the biggest issues in the area) depite claiming this on her literature and website. She called us 'deeply irresponsible' for wanting a new school. It was Zac Goldsmith who supported us in this. Most of us will not forget this.
The only two things that I ever remember her banging on and on and on about are the re-zoning of Kingston station from 6 to 5 and saving the view from King Henry's mound in Richmond Park. Not really things that would make me vote for her.
The LibDem council in Kingston has given us huge hikes in council tax (we now have the highest council tax in London)and have wasted our money on stupid schemes (New Malden High Street and the Rose Theatre).
People in the Richmond Park constituency see her as complicit in this and will punish her as much as they will punish the LibDem council next May.
- Mark, Kingston
@Andrew, London
I am one of Susan Kramer's constituents and quite frankly I do not think that she has worked hard for us. She did not get us the new secondary school in North Kingston (possibly one of the biggest issues in the area) depite claiming this on her literature and website. She called us 'deeply irresponsible' for wanting a new school. It was Zac Goldsmith who supported us in this. Most of us will not forget this.
The only two things that I ever remember her banging on and on and on about are the re-zoning of Kingston station from 6 to 5 and saving the view from King Henry's mound in Richmond Park. Not really things that would make me vote for her.
The LibDem council in Kingston has given us huge hikes in council tax (we now have the highest council tax in London)and have wasted our money on stupid schemes (New Malden High Street and the Rose Theatre).
People in the Richmond Park constituency see her as complicit in this and will punish her as much as they will punish the LibDem council next May.
- Mark, Kingston
"Gordon Brown's hopes of a fourth term"
If Brown thinks that is a possibility, he is truly in another world.
Then again, the readers of Nuts magazine voted him statesman of the year, and in Gordo's little world, the recession has nothing to do with him, so maybe nightmares can come true.
- Nobby Clark, Perth, the Scottish one
I live in a Conservative borough and I'm sure the Tories think they've got this one in the bag. But they are not getting my vote unless they come clean about illegal immigration. I voted for Boris - but wouldn't have if I had known he would propose an amnesty for illegals which only encourages more to our already over-crowded shores. UKIP seem the only alternative. What say you, Mr Cameron?
- Ab, London
Everybody knows this except Labour. Watch the expenses rack up now ahead of the unemployment queue for this bunch of scrounging, tax happy losers.
- Mike Barry, Manchester
And this is new news is it?
- Frank, Home Counties, England.
With one in ten Londoners driving without insurance, you've got a solid bedrock of NuLabour support.
Well I can't imagine them wanting to vote for anyone else.
- Hantsboy, Fleet UK
Nick from battersea, Boris DIDN'T do a U-turn and has repeated his pledge that the Western CC will be removed next year.
I look forward to seeing this worthless government wiped out at the next election. I will be staying up all night with a large tub of popcorn.
- Kevin T, Beckenham, Kent
Only a third LOL more like 90%.
You reap what you sow.
- P Staker, Londonistan.
Well at the last General Election the Labour Government disenfranchised the majority of voters living abroad (that's right: as British Subjects, we too are entitled to vote!) including many serving members of the Armed Forces serving abroad, by giving notice that was too short to vote if you were not already registered. If I had a choice, I'd vote for an Independent Candidate: I'd say British politics needs to go back to it's roots, when each local community voted for a local representative, who knew local people and issues, to go to Parliament and represent their needs and views - not this ridiculous bi-party (sorry UKIP and Liberals) see-saw that's gone on all my lifetime, where a little Oligarchy at the top tells the MPs what they are going to vote for if they want to keep their jobs and then they get sent to explain to their constituents to like it or lump if they don't want a Conservative/Labour* Government next time.
*Delete as applicable depending on what fills you with more horror.
- Roz, France
The fact is that the Labour Party might save some face if they dispose of Gordon Brown and call an election on the basis of a fresh start. I don't think they will win, but they should limit some of the potential electoral damage.
As it is, this Government is staggering to its grave, delayed only by the obstinacy of the occupant of Number 10 Downing Street, and the weakness of the Parliamentary Labour Party to act in the best interests of either the country or the longer term viability of the party in the face of a lightweight CConseervative opposition
- John, Twickenham
I wouldnt be so sure. Mass immigration has meant hundreds of thousands of core New Labour vote here in London.
And dont just point the finger of blame at Brown, the whole organisation and their sick, dreamworld ideologies should be put in the history books for ever, never to return
- Lb, London
Colin@ vote UKIP then! I shall. I don't trust the Tories and Cameron reminds me too much of Tony Blair to trust him. If they got in they couldn't possibly do any worse than the so called big 3.
- Sue, Orpington, Kent
Regretably Harperson has one of the safest Labour seats in the country. She will almost certainly survive, she may even become Leader of the Opposition next year.
Tessa Jowell might not be so lucky, the good folk of Dulwich and West Norwood could well be showing her the door on May 6th.
- Robking, Croydon
When it comes down to the actual election, a lot of us are going to hesitate about voting Conservative. I think Boris's U-turn fiasco on his key election promise makes many of us wonder if Cameron's shiny promises will go the same way once he is in power. The Eton boy promises a lot, but he'll probably be as corrupt and deceitful as all politicians when he gets in
- Nick, Battersea
'would be disastrous for Gordon Brown's hopes of a fourth term'. Seriously, he has hopes of a 4th term???? He is even more deranged than I thought.
- Mark, London
I CAN SEE THEM ALL BEING WIPED OUT. IF LABOUR DONT WANT TO GO INTO THE POLITICAL WILDERNESS THEN THEY HAVE TO GET RID OF BROWN, HE HAS BEEN A DISASTER FROM THE START.
- Mr S.Port, London
You only reap what you sow.
A fitting epitaph for New labour.
- Andrew, Ely UK
The depressing point is, surely, that with the alternative prospect of Cameron's shiny, fluffy NuCons (and if I ever hear another opposition politician waffle about their vision of a "new politics", I may end it all. Blair, then Obama, now Cameron and Clegg...they have all used this vague, empty ploy when they had no actual power) being equally incapable and corrupt, if not more so given the Tories' pre-96 record, we are all doomed to more of the same. Identical wine, just in different bottles.
- Richard, London UK
You can bet that Tessa Jowell will NEVER go willingly, as she would never ever find any employment anywhere in the UK. We don't like poisonous harpies in this country, so she better start packing. Or at least, get her staff to do it for her while she still has some.
- Minority Working Person, London/England
Come the elections,as the sun sets on London fading away the misery of Browns Labour party we can look forward to a light bright dawn of the Conservatives. Welcome back we've missed you.
- El Del, Valencia Spain
I think the Liberals will win Islington, Camden and Hampstead. Due to strong local councillors and time for change. Richmond will be a tight battle, regardless of polls, as do voters want to punish a lady MP (City experience) who has worked hard for them?
- Andrew, London
McMitty needs the likes of Jowell like a hole in the head. But, no matter, for it's looking highly likely that he'll be ditched by his band of chancers, halfwits and charlatans quite soon.
- Ted, London
The entire lot of them need to go. We will NEVER forget the millions of pounds of tax payers' money they have misappropriated. When they are kicked out of office all second homes must be sold and the proceeds returned to the treasury.
- R.F.York, Yorks, UK
Labour and Gordon Brown are clearly guilty of treason and I would welcome and look forward to them standing in the courts for their crimes.
Maybe when the new Government get in they will expose these criminals for the scum they are !
- Michael Fincham, London
The good folk of London are no different from the rest of us,at the next General Election we ALL have a clear choice to make,we either vote Tory,or Tory,irrespective of where we put our X, we will end up with the same Tory Government we have now,or a different Tory Government under "call me Dave".
- Colin, Bristol
Interesting food for thought for many of these grotesquely arrogant ZaNuLabour MPs, as they approach 'Conference', next week.
Do they drift to certain slaughter, or do they bite the hand that feeds them and oust Bottler in a bloody coup?
Whatever, I fervently hope that the next government hunts down and recovers all the fraudulently claimed and/or stolen 'expenses' monies, [that, surprise surprise, crookedly bloated under that 'pretty staight sort of guy' Blair] and presses criminal charges against the 100 most serious serial offenders!
- Dave, Cumbria
Really?I thought everyone was left wing down here and living on benefits.Wonders never cease!
- Steve, London
I think you'll find it won't just be the capitol - in a year it'll be Labour-who?
- David, soton
It won't just be London, Nuliebor will be wiped off the face of the earth.
- David, Fleet Hampshire
In danger of what? Getting in touch with the real world and living within their means and not claiming thousands in "expenses"?
- Patricia, LONDON
Only a third? Are so many Londoners corrupted by welfare?
- David, London
At last some good news for Londoners. I do hope that Ms Harpy Harman is the first casualty.
- Pat, Croydon Uk
Utter rubbish, London is a clear Labour stronghold and always will be. I think they did not even bother to canvass in some ‘safe’ boroughs last time around and managed to get in on big majority.
Complacent, pigheaded and still electable by London Sheep
- James, City of London
Hip Hip Hooray! Now let's put Blair on trial for the Iraq fiasco.
- Never Eat Tuna Again, London
Personally, I feel that any Labour MP who has stood by and watched as Mandelspin has carried out his coup d'etat deserves to be booted out and tried as an enemy of the state.
- St, London
Just London?!!
- Roz, France
