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The Irish are voting on the Lisbon Treaty today. They are the only people in Europe to be holding a referendum and whatever else the vote does, it points to the bracing effect on politics that comes from an obligation to put specific issues to the people.
The likelihood is that the Irish will vote yes to Lisbon. This is not guaranteed - last time they voted on the issue the pollsters were well and truly confounded - but this time around, the climate has changed.
The Celtic Tiger economy, formerly the most dynamic in Europe, is now the most moribund. And the pro-Lisbon campaign has made ruthless use of that fact; many of the posters talk about Yes to Jobs, Yes to Recovery, as if emerging from recession had anything to do with the Treaty.
The EU, moreover, has made concessions to deal with some specific objections from the No campaign last time.
The truth may well be that Ireland's membership of the euro aggravated the underlying causes of its recession - interest rates, set at a low level suitable for Germany, stimulated an unsustainable property boom.
Nonetheless, when the economy is in crisis, the likelihood of a mischievous No vote is less likely.
For Britain, the outcome of the referendum is anything but academic. A vote for the Treaty will put the ball right into the Tories' court.
Probably the last thing David Cameron wants is for the divisive issue of Europe to resurface before a spring election but if the Irish are not obliging enough to reject the Treaty, the Conservatives will have to confirm whether they will or will not hold a referendum here.
So far, shadow foreign secretary William Hague has been opaque on whether a Tory government would do so.
There would be grounds for them to hold one. The treaty does indeed give the EU the appearance of a state, with a so-called president of Europe and its own foreign minister.
It would certainly give the EU a more cohesive identity; the question is whether we want that. If there were a referendum here - assuming the Czech Republic and Poland ratify the treaty - there is no guarantee that we would vote yes.
Then the responsibility for impeding - as France and Germany would see it - a more prominent role for Europe would lie with Britain.
The Irish referendum is a Tory problem. And much will hang on the way they deal with it.
Bad for business
The business rate levied by councils is set two years before it comes into effect. When the economy is booming and demand is rising, this works well for business.
But when, as now, a period of consumer confidence is followed by recession, it is correspondingly bad.
And that is precisely what is happening in the City of Westminster, which, as one of the wealthiest authorities in the country, collects £1.2 billion every year from rates.
The rates that will come into effect later this year are based on rents in April 2008, the height of the property boom.
Obviously, property values now fall far short of those levels. That translates into a rise of 38 per cent in rates.
Swings and roundabouts, the council may say. And the Government may well feel that central London businesses must fend for themselves. But for some businesses, already struggling with feeble demand, this may be a cost too far.
The issue for the Business Secretary to consider is whether it is worth driving some people out of business in order to levy the maximum amount, or whether it might be possible to delay or reduce the liability in the bad times. A compassionate approach might pay off.
Helping scholars
Oxford University is considering whether to provide Ivy Leaguestyle scholarships for poor undergraduates courtesy of its wealthy graduates.
It seems only fair for people who have done well from university to help disadvantaged students - as they did in the past.
Reader views (4)
If Cameron fudges the Lisbon Treaty and will not stand firm on giving us a vote(remember the Conservatives did promise us a vote)It will mean.
The British Government have agreed to pass our Democracy rights over to Brussels.
Hard pressed taxpayers in this country will pay a huge increase into the wasteful EU money pit next year!we need that money here.
It is all very well to say Cameron must forget the EU and concentrate on other issues,he must do it all,and that means having the guts to face the Lisbon Treaty full on.
When will the politicians put our country first? Blair and Labour went native in Brussels and let us hope Cameron will not follow their lead.
- Margot Parker, Weldon UK, 05/10/2009 13:55
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The Lisbon Treaty (in reality the Constitution that was rejected by earlier votes), does more than give the EU a cohesive identity. The fact that it is already responsible for 80% of UK laws means that it has enough of an identity already. The real problem is that it allows the institutions of the EU to take more power at any future stage with no need to refer back to the electorates of EU states, anywhere. The saddest aspect of all is the actions of state radio and tv in Ireland which has effectively been allowed by government to tear up the requirement to offer balanced and equal coverage to both sides of a campaign. The campaign has been a extraordinary one in which those who falsely claim that a No means that Ireland would be ejected from the EU are given slavish coverage, while those on the No side who question these claims are described as 'liars' openly by state employees campaigning for a Yes.
- Damian Hockney, London, UK, 01/10/2009 23:20
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Some problem. This is the one, only and single way the Tories will get my vote. It's there for the asking. A cast-iron guarantee of a referendum is all they have to do. I am not holding my breath, so I have every expectation it will be the Apathy Party once again.
- John Punshon, Milton Keynes, England, 01/10/2009 11:50
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'The treaty does indeed give the EU the appearance of a state, with a so-called president of Europe and its own foreign minister.'
The problem is who actually voted for these unelected officials?Not much demoracy there i say.
- Stephen, London, 01/10/2009 10:27
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