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Swine flu could replace the seasonal variety as the main winter virus for years, a London expert said today.
Based on evidence from past pandemics, health bosses believe it may not die out after an expected peak this winter.
Dr Chloe Sellwood, pandemic flu lead for NHS London, said: “In the last century there were three pandemics, and they each went on to become the dominant winter virus the following year. We don't know if this virus will do that, but we can expect increased activity for a number of winters.”
Dr Sellwood said this does not necessarily mean swine flu will be more dangerous than the seasonal variety. “It is still a very mild illness and we don't know what is going to happen with it. It is early days,” she added.
Health bosses are waiting for stocks of vaccine to arrive for a mass immunisation programme in the capital.
London hospitals have the capacity to treat 600 victims in critical care beds. But if the virus hits a peak this winter, the number of beds could be doubled to 1,200. This would mean beds normally earmarked for post-operative care would be upgraded for critical care.
There are signs, however, that Britain's swine flu outbreak is slowing down.
Chief Medical Officer Sir Liam Donaldson suggested last week that the peak number of cases may be lower than was previously thought.
Last week, there were 18,000 new cases of the virus, rising from 14,000 the previous week and 9,000 the week before that.
