Morning:
14°c
Today's GDP figures should show whether the UK is shaking off recession.
If, as expected, we find that the economy moved into positive growth in the third quarter of this year then that will certainly be good news. It should help business if not consumer confidence.
The Government will certainly herald any improvement as a vindication of its strategy but we should beware of celebrating just yet.
There are three problems. First, the economy remains extremely weak: many of the key areas of concern are improving only very gradually.
Thus, for example, the banks are now lending more money to businesses, helped by low interest rates.
But they are still reluctant to lend. At the same time, next year will see the end of the temporary VAT cut and the stamp duty holiday.
A report by the influential Ernst and Young Item Club this week predicted that growth will struggle to reach one per cent next year.
Second, the impact of this weakness on the real economy - and especially jobs - is only now becoming apparent.
For much of this year, especially in London, the recession has not seemed particularly severe, at least to those still in jobs.
As the damage wrought by the crisis feeds through the system, and as spending cuts start to take hold from next spring, that is likely to change.
Third, few commentators would completely discount the possibility of a new financial collapse.
There are many signs that the City has not learned its lessons, not just soaring equities markets and big bonuses but also the rapid resurgence of investment banking and the derivatives markets.
Any new crisis will find central governments with little ammunition left from the past year's bail-outs and emergency measures.
If the economy is emerging from recession, that is heartening but we cannot breathe easy yet.
Guns 'n' poses
The row over the Metropolitan Police's decision to mount armed patrols in London was surely foreseeable. Arming the police is a perennially controversial issue.
Thus the manner of the Met's decision, without informing the Mayor, the Metropolitan Police Authority or, reportedly, the Met Commissioner himself, appears odd.
The plan is for officers openly carrying carbines and pistols to patrol on foot in key estates in both north and south London.
The recent rash of shootings between rival Turkish gangs in Tottenham and shootings in Brixton and Streatham have prompted this effort to seize back the streets.
It is possible to over-dramatise the decision: the Met has for years had a relatively high proportion of armed officers at any given time.
If it provides extra security for those neighbourhoods, that is to the good.
The difficulty is firstly how effective the tactic can be: as with any police patrolling, its primary impact is in terms of reassuring the public rather than catching criminals.
It is hard to see these patrols making much real difference to gang activity. Then there is the potential for tragic error, as in the shooting of Jean Charles de Menezes in 2005.
This is a decision which should have had wider discussion. If the Met wants full public support for such radical moves, it should first discuss them with the Mayor.
Fright night
Waltham Forest's ban on under-18s buying eggs and flour in the run-up to Halloween is doubtless well intentioned.
However, trick or treat pranks are fairly harmless fun. This seems a draconian approach.
Could police not simply deal with trouble as it happens - or is that too frightening a prospect for the spookiest night of the year?
