Morning:
14°c
This was a wake-up call. And a nasty one at that.
For weeks economists, politicians and other so-called experts have been telling us that things are looking up, the economy is growing and the recession is over.
To many people the only response was: nonsense. And today that feeling was confirmed.
Yes, the stock market is booming and the housing market is on the rise, but these are false indicators.
The FTSE 100 is dominated by foreign companies and propped up by the money the Bank of England has pumped into the economy.
The London housing market is driven by cash-rich buyers and lack of supply. Unemployment is at 2.5 million and rising, wages are being frozen or cut and businesses are going bust. And even if the recession was declared over, what would it mean to those fearing for jobs or struggling firms? Not a lot.
Recession is merely a technicality defined by two consecutive quarters of decline. The end of recession is therefore one quarter without contraction, so even a figure of 0.0 per cent would mean recession is over. Hardly a reason to crack open the champagne.
Justin King, chief executive of Sainsbury, said a return to growth will be nothing more than "an accident of the maths". In other words, having fallen so far for so long, a return to growth at some stage was inevitable.
The City economists got it horribly wrong - again. They failed to spot the downturn coming and now they are failing to read the recovery, or lack of it.
People are losing confidence in forecasters and this is vital if there is to be any sort of recovery.
