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It's tentative but it's still a step forward

Chris Blackhurst
11 Nov 2009


It's not only Mervyn King's words - "there is a more buoyant picture looking ahead" - that provide optimism today.

For the normally cautious Bank of England governor to use a word like "buoyant" is good enough. That he accompanies this with an upwardly revised forecast of GDP going forward ought to be an occasion for the outbreak of street parties.

Only three months ago, he was saying growth would barely creep above three per cent in the next three years. Now, here he is, putting a "four" in the headline number. This, plus the slowing rise in unemployment should mean we're there. Alas, it's not so clear-cut.

He adds: "This does not alter the extent of the challenges." The reality is the banks still aren't lending and there's talk of inflation rearing its ugly head. Indeed it is just a week since the Bank injected an extra £25billion into the economy. So far, the Bank has pumped in £200billion and still there is no sign of the banks responding.

Public sector cuts won't kick in until after the election. If the Tories win, they will want to get the worst out of the way so they can point the finger of blame at Gordon Brown. So, what we've got is a tentative foot forward in the knowledge that however far we advance, we must be prepared to step back.

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