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Hands up, who is surprised that Gordon Brown is not all sweetness and light as a boss? There's a problem with Gordon's character? Of course there is and, frankly, there always has been. His “psychological flaws” are the best documented in political history.
I savoured the sight of Peter Mandelson insisting that “Nobody tolerates bullying in this Government. Period. That's it.” It was like one of the boys in The Lord of the Flies telling us they were all playing very happily together.
The row will fritter on about the claims of the patently unreliable anti-bullying charity and accuracy of Andrew Rawnsley's sources.
The big question is whether the “Gordon Problem” will finally deny him his first electoral mandate as leader. Is it a flurry or a game-changer? No doubt, the bullying accusations damage Brown. Yet another political story keeps rudely intruding: what on earth is happening to the unassailable Tory lead? The Conservatives are sliding and badly need momentum. ICM gives them a mere seven-point lead in the wake of a poll registering a mere six-point advance. Something is going wrong.
The sense of an “inevitable” Tory victory coexists uneasily with the growing likelihood of a hung parliament — the Snark of British political life.
Much discussed, rarely seen, it now stalks the corridors of Westminster. Even the Lib-Dems seem nonplussed at the development. Nick Clegg says he doesn't want to “do deals” for Cabinet seats but Vince Cable has the look of a man who wouldn't say no to a nicely upholstered one.
Poll leads are notoriously fickle and Mr Cameron, who roared ahead last year, may well do so again. The problem for the Tory leader is that he has never held onto a rating of more than 40 per cent — the baseline for a solid majority.
Meanwhile the Labour base is firming up — not least because public-sector workers have been given rather a lot to fear from the prospect of a squeeze on spending which they think will hit them hardest.
“It's not that the heartlands love us again,” one minister in a bellwether southern constituency tells me, “They still think we're hopeless. But they are getting frightened of the alternative”.
The sensible position might well be that the deficit needs urgent attention. But Mr Cameron has not reassured lower-middle-England voters that this can happen without endangering their already shaky prosperity.
Initiatives like the inheritance tax cut on higher earners play particularly badly with voters just underneath the threshold and envious of a tax break in recessionary times.
What's the solution? The Central Office strategy which began the new year — a retreat from the loud deficit-hawk rhetoric of the back end of 2009 and a focus on David Cameron, with a poster presence eerily suggestive of a personality cult, has not paid off.
Mr Cameron has a huge lead over Mr Brown in terms of personal likeability. But the underlying discomfort with the rest of his party hasn't been addressed.
I also sense uncertainty in Team Cameron about what to do with George Osborne. The shadow chancellor is an indelible part of the modernising project and a key player on the economic vision of the Conservatives. And yet he is virtually invisible from the offer they are making to voters. This may be because a young and (by definition) inexperienced politician is a hard sell. But confusion is inherent in Mr Osborne going out on a limb to emphasise the urgency of cutting the deficit, only for Mr Cameron later to make soothing noises that we won't feel a thing for a year.
The economy is the fault line in this election and voters beset by anxiety about what lies ahead do need to get a clearer picture of the man who will hold our purse strings tightly.
A broader uncertainty about the Conservative Party's contours has never really lifted. Yes, Opposition is about keeping options open. Still, it really is time voters had an idea of what they will get by changing government.
I gather some recalibration is under way about the clarity of the Tories' message on the economy, to make the choices clearer. Camp Cameron seems assailed by contradictory desires to tell us how tough everything would be — and then hands out bemusing sweeteners (shares in part-nationalised banks, hazily defined co-operatives).
Alas, it is clear to most people that there is little left to hand out that has much value, so the impression is more of a string of gimmicks than a distinct narrative.
The strongest Tory attack position is that Mr Brown, for all his claim to super-human understanding of high finance, has presided over a stonking recession for which he was no better prepared than anyone else — and worse than some.
Voters know they are being offered a choice of leaders who are two sides of the human coin. Mr Cameron is pleasant to watch — observing him recently playing table tennis with children, you couldn't miss his native spontaneity. Like Mr Blair at his peak, he looks as if he enjoys life, which is infectious. We all have to live with our politicians as the backdrop to our lives.
Even in his flattering Piers Morgan interview Mr Brown came across as a complex man, stiff and stinting with his emotions. He has yet to convey any reason why the electorate should want him for another four or five years. Yesterday, he gave a long overdue speech on excellence in education. It left me with little sense of where his own views are rooted on such issues and why (apart from the small matter of an election) he feels moved to discuss them with us now.
What lies ahead is one of the most fascinating election clashes on record. As pollster Peter Kellner points out in Prospect magazine this month, it cannot be won in the corners of a few key marginals — the mountain of seats the Tories has to climb is too steep for that.
“If Cameron is to win the coming election he must win converts in every demographic group,” concludes Kellner. That requires a more decisive and consistent Tory thrust in the weeks to come. The Cameron army is on the march. It's not yet on a roll.
Reader views (14)
Because those who vote Labour are thick.
- Bob Stone, Bournemouth, England, 01/03/2010 14:14
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Do not underestimate the influence of women voters. Many women voters are influenced by personality rather than policy. This is why the election is becoming so personalised.
The TV interview with Gordon Brown in which he was able to talk about the trauma of losing his child would have been immensely effective in winning the sympathy of women. It was no accident that this interview was closely followed by the bullying row, which showed a less attractive side of Brown's character.
However a full appreciation of this, including Brown's use of rotweilers Damian Macbride and Charlie Whelan to savage those who cross his path (including Chancellor Darling) would not have had the immediacy of appeal given by the television interview. It therefore did relatively little to counter the effect of that interview in terms of polling results.
While ephemeral factors such as this can make big differences in polling results it remains to be seen how far they will be reflected in election voting, which depends heavily on turnout.
- Richard Shaw, Pinner, UK, 27/02/2010 23:55
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The Tories are not rolling because they don’t want to. The mega-crisis when a hung parliament is declared will bring the economic / fiscal roof down on McBroon & Co.
The ensuing dénouement when the excrement hits the fan will ensure that NuLab, or old Lab, ceases to be acceptable. Both parties seem to be colluding to keep the truth about the economic situation, Europe and immigration from the British public. Cameroon may or may not be the Tory leader when they win the repeat election in 2011 and who cares anyway?
AnneMcE pretends, like Benedict Brogan in the Daily Telegraph, that the polls are reflecting the real situation, but it is the cynical, clever, cunning work of Conservative Central Office that plans not to win this time, but to lose by a very small margin. Conspiracy theory? Too right!
Of course, what this does for conditions in the country at large, and its people, is best not thought about or you won’t sleep at night.
One day honesty will return, but I for one am not holding my breath.
- Elliemae'S Grandad, London UK, 25/02/2010 13:09
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Several reasons;
Labour has nutured and accrued a core clientell based on benefit claimants and multiple breeders.
The Tories leader is not "Obama cool" enough to appeal to women and/or "yoof"
The Tories are afraid to say what the working people want to hear for fear of being branded racist or anti-EU.
Those grown fat on the housing casino are afraid that Tory policies might reverse the values of their unearned nesteggs - Houses.
Many people lie when polled, they give "nice" responses.
Many people have, so far, not noticed the recession - some are even better off due to it, perversly!
Many "middle of the roaders" have resigned themselves to all politicians being the same/pigs in triughs etc. due to the expenses scandle, so may well not bother to vote.
Because the alternative to NuLabour is hamstrung by PC and Eu legistlation, many will vote for fringe or extreme parties - look for big swings to these in the inner cities especially.
This all bodes badly for the future - a hung parliament beckons.
- Darius, London, 25/02/2010 13:00
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Has Labour run budget surplus in the 21st century? Never? And people still want to place their finances in Labour's hands??? Are common sense implants available on the NHS?
- W R Stevenson, London SE26, 25/02/2010 11:20
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<i> it cannot be won in the corners of a few key marginals — the mountain of seats the Tories has to climb is too steep for that.</i>
A Few?
I belive there are 200 Tory target seat? Of course, if you think 30% of the Commons seats is a few, then you are correct.
- Madasafish, Stoke n Trent, 25/02/2010 09:58
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Because the British are quite fond of bad-mannered bullies. They think it's manly. God help us.
- Davidke, ramsey isle of man, 25/02/2010 07:11
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Steve, London
Harold MacMillan's government built 400000 council houses during his terrm in office.Unwitting conivance on a grand scale there Eh. When it come to troughs, you should know by now that there was as many of your beloved tory politicians as neck deep in them as their were labour.
- Jimmy, London England, 24/02/2010 16:04
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Mr Blubby may have garnered a quick bit of poll, but it won't work. The disatisfaction runs far too deep.
As always the bookies are a better guide than the journos. Today's odds, after all the Lab poll-boost:
Tories 1/10; Lab 6/1; Lib 100/1
That'll do.
- Tv, Hounslow, 24/02/2010 15:13
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The reason is that Brown's debt is hidden. He took one last credit card to be paid by the UK taxpayer. UK problems are not resolved.
£200 Billion will see Brown to the election. 0.5% interest rates stop the pain. The wounds are stil there. Brown has mugged the UK economy. It is on a stretcher by the Ambulance. Extra blood is pumping in, with morphine. Once these wear off the patient needs serious treatment.
Brown is the worst Chancellor and PM in history. He will be seen as the man who corrupted No 10 and Parliament, used No 10 officials to smear opponents and used huge hidden debts to cover government incompetences.
Same debt levels as Greece. State overmanning with 7 million direct staff, and 8 million economically inactive and 1 million teens out of work. Labour really does not work.
- Truthful, brum UK, 24/02/2010 14:47
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It becomes more and more obvious that the voters see a hung parliament as a way of clipping Parliament's wings. This is because the politicians remain unrepentant for their "flipping" scandal and blatant overgoverning. This is the way the electorate pass "a vote of no confidence"
- Ghengis Junior, Fishguard Wales, 24/02/2010 14:47
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'One minister in a bellwether constituency tells me' ? Can we have his name please? otherwise we ae going down the Rawnsley road again. No name no evidence. If you are not prepared to name the minister, or he/she is is only giving you the information off the record, then its not worth the paper its written on.We are being asked, who do you trust most? A politician or a journalist? Hardly any easy choice to make, is it?
- Jimmy, London England, 24/02/2010 14:39
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I predict the electorate will get cold feet about Tory cuts and vote Labour in again: but only just. Like John Major's government this will be worse than defeat, because Labour will then limp on for a few years until a Tory landslide. A Tory government is going to be horrible but let's get it over with.
- Dom, London, 24/02/2010 14:02
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The reason why Cameron can't seem to seal the deal is in part because of The Consevatives fear of upsetting the "cuddly" middle ground, w sector that exists more in their imagination than in actual life. But far more than that is the fact that Labour (sometimes with the unwitting connivance of the Tories) has built a core vote of some 30 percent of the electorate - public sector, private sector dependent on public money, claimants - who see the return of a Labour Government as their only chance of keeping their noses in the trough.
Starting with Herbert "we are going to build the Tories out of London" Morrison, Labour have gerrymandered their way to electoral strength in a way that makes Lady Porter's actions about as significant as a snowflake on a summer's day.
The Tories will have a very tough time overcoming all that.
- Steve, London, 24/02/2010 13:27
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