Morning:
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One midweek lunchtime recently I was meeting a friend in Wimbledon Village. Should we book? No, we agreed, the restaurant would be empty. It wasn't. Every table was taken. As they were at all the other bars and eating places.
There were old folk and ladies who lunch. And students. But there was a preponderance of men and women who were less easily categorised. They looked as though they should be at work but they weren't. I was on holiday but they couldn't be on a day off. Not all of them.
It dawned on me that this was a crowd that didn't need a job. For whatever reason — retired early, laid-off, living off savings or the proceeds from the sale of a property — they were taking it easy.
That same week I was in Cheshire visiting relatives. We went to a country pub. It was just the same — a smattering of OAPs but also those who were much younger. And it was like that again in Cumbria.
This snapshot wasn't quite as extreme as Greece last summer, when I went to a nearby town and found most of the residents kipping under trees — but it wasn't far off. When the Greek economy subsequently hit the buffers and the government was ordered to make swingeing cuts, I was not in the least bit surprised.
But just as I wondered what the Greeks do to make money, worryingly so am I beginning to think something similar about the UK.
Official figures yesterday show that a record 8.16 million people — more than the population of Greater London — are now classed as “economically inactive”. That means they're of working age but are not seeking employment. Some of them, I wager, I observed on my midday outing in SW19.
The economically inactive (don't you just love the phrase, like something out of Yes Minister) broadly fall into seven categories: students, mothers and carers, short-term sick, long-term sick, retired, discouraged or other.
Ministers were quick to trumpet the drop in the jobless total by 33,000. It was a better result than had been expected. “The fall in unemployment for the third month in a row is very welcome,” said Yvette Cooper, the work and pensions secretary.
Cooper voiced her caution, adding, “we're not out of the woods yet and we are still determined to do more to support jobs and help the unemployed this year”. What she did not mention was the 21.5 per cent of the working-age population who have given up on work, the economically inactive band. What she also failed to dwell upon was the jump in the number of students by 98,000 to 2.31 million, another all-time high.
The rise — almost three times greater than the fall in unemployed — is puzzling. These findings are from the Office for National Statistics and cover the period November to January. This doesn't strike me as the peak period for people registering as students. Perish the thought that a political sleight of hand has been brought to bear to boost the student total at the expense of the out-of-work.
Nevertheless, the bigger reality is that we now have 2.31 million students, and many of them have chosen to pursue or continue pursuing their studies rather than try to find employment. My eldest son, 22, is lucky — he has a job. Most of his contemporaries leaving their colleges or universities have struggled. Faced with the prospect of a menial job which wasn't in the plan, a fair chunk are opting to stay on.
The record-breaking student total can be seen as evidence of a growing, educated, highly-trained workforce — one that should make Britain better equipped for the 21st century and the challenges posed by increased globalisation. In that sense, it's a positive consequence of the recession.
Crucially, though, it also masks the underlying reality that a lot of them are studying on worthless courses in poor universities and colleges — and running up enormous debts. And it's hard to see how that is remotely beneficial — to the students, to their parents, who are often having to help them out, or to the economy.
Student borrowing is one time-bomb for the future. Another is what happens when some of those categorised as economically inactive — such as students who qualify or quit their courses early, or mothers who want to return to work or those who retire from their main careers but feel they would like to do something again — decide to look for jobs. What then?
The answer is that we will experience a sharp increase in the unemployment figures to reflect a jobless level that was there all along but for the fact many people were conveniently rebranded as economically inactive.
Along with the economically inactive, there is another group that has risen in number: people working part-time because they cannot find a full-time job. They were up 20,000 on the quarter, to 1.04 million. So that's 8.16 million economically inactive and another 1.04 million frustrated part-timers.
There is one other riser: the total of public sector workers increased by 7,000 from September 2009 to 6.1 million. This despite all the strident ministerial claims about making cuts and tackling the deficit.
The Government may paint a picture of a Britain that is full of super-qualified workers serving, to use one of their favourite phrases, an enterprise society. The truth is that in many places the largest employer is that same government, in the shape of the hospital or town hall, and if it's not, then it's second behind the superstores and retail parks — which hardly count as wealth creators. Meanwhile a hefty and rapidly growing portion of the population is classed as economically inactive or would like to do more but can't.
This all seems eerily familiar. Hang on, didn't I see it in Greece last year?
Reader views (6)
Um, Chris... you realise that there are eight million people living in London so the chances of a handful having the day off work at the same time is actually quite high? Oh no, sorry, I forgot. The Evening Standard is a middle England village rag inexplicably published in one of the world's most cosmopolitan cities. Where, yes, we have cafes.
- Andrea, London, 19/03/2010 09:38
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"Cappucino, madame? - no, no need for a credit card, madame, I`ll just add it to the national debt... there you go, - NEXT?"
- Darius, London, 19/03/2010 08:16
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Interesting article about Cafe life though, what was left out was people like myself who work evening's ( I work in Music promotions business lots of late night's, so enjoy going to cafes in the day time on my rare days off.)to get some fresh air, to complete life, and meet friends.
Though Cafes being over crowded, think not just down to unemployment figures, down to same reason as the transport system being over crowded, London can't handel all the new people arriving every day, from foreign countries it's going to get worse, not better.
Cafes are little bit of England we need to saviour, my best advice, is like any thing in life,it's better to search a little harder then the regular cafe or Starbucks & tourist traps and to find hidden away gems or privately owned cafes for peaceful afternoons, ( I know lots, but I,m not giving out names here ) to have crowds turn up and find my favourite places I can't get a table any longer, search and you will find!
- Keith, London, 19/03/2010 01:31
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Two things. Students and unemployed certainly couldn't afford posh Wimbeldon eateries. Also why does piece segue into political rant against public sector workers - there are more in the (comparatively) economically successful France which some of your commentators seem to like so much. I run a successful small business by way and slightly re-sent the implication that I should be right-wing and like William Hague.
- Malcolm Burgess, London UK, 18/03/2010 18:21
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I am one of the 'economically inactive' and live quite close to Wimbledon Village. In years gone by I would have thought about starting a small business after a long career in Finance, but with the massive amount of red tape, overly tight bank lending criteria and ridiculously high taxation I honestly don't think it's worth the risk at the moment. Anybody fancy a Cappucino?
- Mark, London, 18/03/2010 15:53
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This is the worrying picture going forward. If you add to this those in the public sector, you can see the proportion of the population depending on the private sector. We are not a country like say Australia that can fall back on huge natural resources and we need to export to bring in foreign currency. The difference with past eras is that we could export our way out of trouble and to an extent our unit costs could be absorbed into this trade. In those days there was little competition from China and India whose unit costs are fall below those of the UK. The next Government either lets it continue along this path or takes drastic action. It's not going to be easy going forward.
- Bernard Hazell, gibraltar, 18/03/2010 11:52
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