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- Read more political comment from Matthew d'Ancona
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- The election race: Keep up to date by following the Standard's coverage
- Zac Goldsmith the first victim of Nick Clegg’s new TV popularity
- Joe Murphy: Nick Clegg's bounce changes everything
- Labour and Lib-Dem voters will 'keep the Tories out of London’
How long will our newly crowned “People's Politician” get? That is the question occupying every election strategist, as the pollsters and spin doctors agonise over Clegg-mania.
Today's YouGov poll in The Sun shows the Lib-Dems ahead of both the Tories and Labour — as did a BPIX survey for yesterday's Mail on Sunday. How long will it take before the volcanic ash from Mount Clegg settles and normal service is resumed? If the answer is 17 days or more, then this election may produce a quite astonishing result.
In speed and potency the Clegg craze has resembled the hysteria that swept the nation in the days after the death of Princess Diana. There is a mesh between the mood of the country — disgust with the main political parties — and the box-fresh populism of the Lib-Dem leader. His countenance is a perfect match for the electorate's mood. And once a craze takes hold, people succumb to it without being able to explain why.
As Mark Earls shows in his brilliant book, Herd, much behaviour that looks principled is in fact driven by peer-to-peer influence and social conformity. The “cellotaphs” of floral tributes to the late Princess, Earls demonstrates, were inspired by television images of the first bouquets: copycat behaviour rather than a spontaneous surge of emotion.
This is why Clegg-mania is so much stronger today than it was on Friday morning.
Nobody disputes that the Lib-Dem leader was the victor in the first debate. But the scale of his triumph has been amplified many times over the course of the weekend. People have chattered to people, who have chattered to other people about his performance, and in the way of all folklore, the story has grown in the telling. A good television appearance has now acquired the status of the Gettysburg Address combined with the Sermon on the Mount. Infatuated with its new discovery, the electorate is willing on the Lib-Dem leader to live up to his image as Martin Luther Clegg.
An infatuated girl does not care that her handsome new boyfriend is unreliable with money or did badly in his A-levels. This is why the Tories' attacks on Clegg's policies are a mistake and make the Conservatives sound stuffy and parental. In yesterday's Sunday Times, William Hague claimed that a vote for the Lib-Dem leader was a vote for the “European super-state” — a critique that is technically correct (Clegg is a indeed a passionate Europhile) but emotionally tone deaf.
The whole Clegg phenomenon is a massive two fingers to politicians squabbling with each other over policy detail, when what they should be doing is healing themselves, atoning for their own collective sins. The more the Tories say that Clegg's figures don't add up, the more appealing they make him seem.
Gordon Brown, meanwhile, will be duly alarmed that his party is in third place, theoretically poised on the lip of the electoral abyss. But the PM knows that on balance Clegg-mania is more of an opportunity for him than a threat to his survival. So structurally biased is the electoral system against the Conservatives that, in the 2005 election, the Tories had to achieve almost 9,000 more votes per constituency to win a seat than did Labour. Even with the new boundaries, David Cameron needs a uniform national swing of almost seven per cent from Labour to Conservative for a majority of one. So Brown can be well behind in the polls — and in the actual vote on May 6 — and still end up with more seats than the Tories.
The PM also knows that Cameron's electoral strategy depends on wooing Lib-Dems in the 88 top Labour marginals in which the Tories are second: if the Lib-Dem vote holds up or grows in such seats, Cameron will lose.
The upshot of which is this: to see off Clegg, the Tory leader has to portray him not as a bad policymaker but as an unwitting Labour stooge. “Vote Clegg, get Brown” is chillingly rhythmic but also has the merit of being true.
The translation of Clegg-mania into real votes on May 6 would probably yield a House of Commons in which Brown is able to construct a Lib-Lab coalition. In his interview with the BBC's Andrew Marr yesterday, the PM studiously (and wisely) dodged repeated questions on the subject. But Alan Johnson — scarcely an unlicensed maverick — had already made clear the Labour high command's position, telling The Times last week that “we have to kill this argument that coalition government is dangerous”.
In the two remaining television debates, Cameron needs to set himself apart from Clegg and Brown as effectively as Clegg last week drew a line — in words and body language — between himself (new, young, different) and the Tory and Labour leaders (more of the same). Cameron should remember the way in which Spitting Image used to satirise the two Davids of the Alliance: with Steel inside Owen's jacket pocket. It did for Steel. A similar image could help do for Clegg.
Of course, Cameron has to reclaim his mantle as the agent of change by being more forthright, by communicating true urgency, by speaking directly to the viewer at home. But in the 17 days remaining the Tories also have to put the fear of God into the electorate and make them see that the consequence of voting for Saint Nick may well be Five More Years of Gordon Brown.
I use capital letters advisedly, because this is a prospect that unites every focus group, every opinion poll, every conversation at the coffee machine, in fear and loathing. Maybe Dave has not yet “sealed the deal”, but Gordon certainly has. Nobody wants five more years of him. Yet that is precisely what we may get if the electorate persists in its heady tango with Clegg. Gordon Brown in No 10 until 2015: if that doesn't strike terror in the heart of the herd, I don't know what will.
Reader views (17)
Though I believe this debate undermined the Liberal Democrats by placing Clegg on the same pedestal as both Cameron and Brown who both lack ability and a degree of morality, without it their aims would not have been recognised. To a certain extent, this debate has helped the Lib Dems achieve some of their manifesto promises and is giving them a chance to challenge the way politics is practised today.
The biggest shame is now they will most likely be associated with the coalition and may never achieve the same success or greater again unless rebel MPs break off and form their own party.
- Jo, Cheltenham, 29/06/2010 22:58
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What a rubbish piece - another journalist who utterly fails to understand what's going on.
Most people don't want 5 more years of Labour, but nor do they want the Tories. That's why a majority want a hung parliament - even with all the uncertainty. They've had enough of the failure of both old parties and they have rallied to the cry of "plague on both your houses". If the LibDem surge survives Thursday's debate then its unlikely that scaremongering "Vote Clegg get [insert other party]" arguments will have any more effect.
- alexlondon, London, 20/04/2010 15:50
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Sorry Mr D'Ancona, what you say is unsupported by facts. Also its hypocritical when all you are seeking to do is dumb down the support for the Lib Dems you've nothing positive to say for Dave Cameron. the line you take is anti democratic - where's the argument on policy? I for one think the Lib Dems have a much better economic policy, are reducing bureaucracy and providing low earners with every incentive to work.
- Paul, London, 20/04/2010 13:15
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What a dramatic tagline! The *NIGHTMARE* scenario of Nick Clegg Mania!
Clegg was the only would-be leader who offered any kind of sensible tax reform - IE, taxing people with the most money more.
What a nightmare that would be for Britain!
How the Conservatives continue to poll so well, I have no idea. Who are these people that aren't in the top 5% earnings category who seem to think they stand to benefit from Cameron coming to power?
- Kevin Wales, Wimbledon, 20/04/2010 12:23
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'.. they are still the nasty old right-wing, anti-Europe, anti-minorities,friends of the rich as they ever were.'
- Fred, London UK
Few thank god for that.
- Frank, Home Counties, England., 20/04/2010 11:07
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Here's a simple question for all you Tories. We are slowly crawling out of the worst recession since before WW2; the nation has an eye-watering deficit that will pull down household wealth for years to come; and we have an incumbent prime minister with the personal charm of a pocket calculator. So why are the official opposition looking like a bunch of losers?
- Paul, Twickenham, 20/04/2010 00:26
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I am deeply disgusted by the fact that the Lib Dems were offered equal standing in the debate. Clegg came across as immature, more concerned with getting down with the kids than producing any genuine substance. If this has hoodwinked the voting populace, I fear for this nation.
- Sacha T-Jones, Swindon, United Kingdom, 19/04/2010 21:56
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Mr D'Ancona, the nightmare scenario is seeing Cameron and his odious Tories back in power, closely followed by having to read more of your politically biased puerile garbage.
- Kerry Trubee, Purley, 19/04/2010 21:19
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It is about time the Lib Dem policies are scruitinised just as closely as those of the other 2 parties by all sections of the press. The media are wallowing in Cleggmania, following him around but not asking ONE policy question. They just allow him to continue spouting that his time has come and that no one should pay any attention to the two OLD parties.
Andrew Neil did an excellent job raising point by point on a one to one with the Lib Dem Foreign minister. He just took their manifesto and projections apart. Pity it was only shown on the BBC News satellite channel in the early hours when most of the electorate are in bed. Come on BBC, why do you not do one of your famous REPEATS when it matters.
- Antonia,, London, 19/04/2010 19:57
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I completely disagree with mr d'ancona my worst nightmare would be for conservitives to be in power. I feel sorry for gordan brown and how the media portrays him and for the hand he's been dealt. He's one of the only 'old labour' types left that is true to the original aim of a labour government that is there to serve the people. He has done alot of great things when working alongside Tony Blair and people forget that the one person who ruined our country was Margaret Thatcher and she proved that the conservatives are not what we need if we want true equality. Lib dem's or labour but I beg you not to vote for cameron please!!!!
- Lianne coe, London uk, 19/04/2010 19:19
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Well Mr D'ancona you may think that 5 years of a Brown/Clegg Government will be a nightmare. But the worst of all would the despised Tories getting back in power!! For all his talk Cameron has not really changed the party - they are still the nasty old right-wing, anti-Europe, anti-minorities,friends of the rich as they ever were.
- Fred, London UK, 19/04/2010 18:23
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As with all things shiny and new you must look at the detail. Anyone thinking of voting for the Lib Dems would do well to look at their mad polices on the Environment and Transport for instance. If you want more green taxes, road pricing and compulsory recycling of everything then vote for them.
Clegg is right. We need a change from the old two party system.
The problem is, he and the Lib Dems are NOT the solution.
- Adam, Harrow, UK, 19/04/2010 17:47
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I was under the impression that this was going to be a reasonably balanced article. Mr D'ancona, just for once, how about an article where your heads isn't firmly wedged up Mr Cameron's bottom.
- jimmy, London England, 19/04/2010 17:24
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It's never the brightest or the most individual or interesting or intellgent or wisest contender who wins Celebrity Big Brother, just the one who manages to build up a following on TV, sometimes just but being dim but nice.
- Maggie, London, 19/04/2010 17:23
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I will only vote according to what Matthew d'Ancona tells me to do.
- Alistair Bull, Croydon, 19/04/2010 17:14
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Clegg mania is just a bit of fun, when the time comes to vote the lib dems 15 minutes of fame will have long gone, although i must confess that i am more than a bit pleased the labour blokes are being pushed into third place and hopefully never able to raise their insidious heads above the political parapet ever again
- Leonard Lillywhites, Tottenham, 19/04/2010 15:39
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Oh dear. Another member of the Tory press upset at the fact their cosy assumptions that Cameron was about to cruise into Number 10 may have been off the mark.
- Mike, London, 19/04/2010 14:36
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