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Boris Johnson 'to be London Mayor again' says Standard poll
Joe Murphy and Pippa Crerar20 Sep 2010
Boris Johnson's hopes of a second term as Mayor were boosted today by a poll showing he is more popular than both of his Labour rivals put together.
Almost half of Londoners say they are more likely to vote for him in 2012 than for either former mayor Ken Livingstone or new Labour hopeful Oona King.
The unique survey for the Evening Standard, London Tonight and LBC also reveals that his call for new laws to make Tube strikes harder has huge public support.
The Mayor has significant backing for his campaign to persuade Chancellor George Osborne to go easy on London in the spending cuts because of the capital's special importance to Britain's economy.
The findings by pollsters ComRes come at the start of a week that will end with either Mr Livingstone or Ms King chosen as the official Labour candidate to run for Mayor in 2012. They point clearly to another Boris v Ken showdown, this time with Mr Johnson as the incumbent defending his claim to City Hall.
The poll found 27 per cent of Londoners favour Mr Livingstone for Mayor, while nine per cent prefer Ms King. But 45 per cent say they are currently most likely to vote for Conservative Mr Johnson — nine points more than the two Labour candidates combined.
The figures represent a surge in Mr Johnson's popularity since the last mayoral election when he was six points ahead of Mr Livingstone on first preferences, at 42 per cent to 36, with Lib-Dem Brian Paddick on 10.
In the final round, Mr Johnson won 53 per cent (1,168,738) of Londoners' votes to Mr Livingstone's 47 per cent (1,028,966). Tony Travers, director of the LSE's Greater London group, said: “The poll suggests Mr Johnson is in a strong position to win a second term.”
“He is polling well ahead of the Tories in May's general election. The nine per cent vote for Oona King suggests a sizeable anti-Livingstone Labour vote, though whoever Labour choose would presumably pick up some of the losing candidate's support.”
Once again Mr Johnson's stronger backing in the suburbs may be crucial. He has a 28-point lead in outer London with 52 per cent, while in the centre he and Mr Livingstone are almost neck-and-neck on 33 to 32. LBC radio presenter Nick Ferrari said: “It looks like Boris will be in City Hall in two years' time — but the big difference in the Ken/Boris showdown this time will be that there is a Conservative-led coalition in government.
“At the moment Ken is mired lower than any of us have seen him before, but there's a way to go. It's not over yet.”
A poll for the Standard in April last year after Mr Johnson had been in power for a year put him on 49 per cent — 16 points ahead of Mr Livingstone.
Polling experts suggested it was natural that the Mayor's popularity would have dipped slightly mid-term with the prospect of funding cuts ahead.
Survey that puts Boris in pole position
Do you support or oppose the current Tube strikes?
Support: 16%
Oppose: 65%
Don't know: 19%
Men (69%) are slightly more likely than women (63%) to say that they oppose the strikes.
Londoners in wealthier social groups AB (71%) and C1 (65%) are more likely to say they oppose the strikes, than people in social groups C2 (49%) and DE (58%).
Do you support or oppose Boris Johnson's proposal that the law should be changed to make it harder to call a strike on the London Underground?
Support: 61%
Oppose: 25%
Don't know: 15%
Men (64%) are more likely than women (57%) to support this proposal.
People living in outer London (63%) are more likely to support this than those in inner London (56%), perhaps because they are more likely to commute in.
The mayor argues London is a special case and should be protected from Government cutbacks. Do you agree or disagree with this?
Agree: 51%
Disagree: 32%
Don't know: 17%
More men (38%) than women (27%) disagree.
Who, of the following, would you be most likely to vote for as the next Mayor?
Boris Johnson: 45%
Ken Livingstone: 27%
Oona King: 9%
None of these: 19%
Boris is more popular among the older age groups, with 59% of people aged 65 or over saying that they would be most likely to vote for him.
Boris remains more popular in the doughnut of outer London than he does in inner London — by 52% to 33%.
Reader views (27)
I cant see bashing the RMT making any great improvements for London transport in the long run, and I think BJ, like his would be mentor DC, is a egotistical, PR obsessed twit, without a single successful policy to rub against his single functioning brain cell. The shallowness of people who like him because ‘he looks like he’s having fun’ never ceases to repulse me.
- humf, Oxford, England, 24/09/2010 13:03
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I cant see bashing the RMT making any great improvements for London transport in the long run, and I think BJ, like his would be mentor DC, is a egotistical, PR obsessed twit, without a single successful policy to rub against his single functioning brain cell. The shallowness of people who like him because ‘he looks like he’s having fun’ never ceases to repulse me.
- Humf, Oxford, UK, 24/09/2010 12:53
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Livingstone and King are both too dim witted to accept that they are abject failures. Having both suffered humiliating defeats at their last attempts at being elected they should retire gracefully whilst they still have a shred of dignity left.
- R.F.York, Yorks, UK, 21/09/2010 08:31
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What has Boris done since arriving? Hard to think of anything. At least Ken did stuff - even if it was a bit nutty
- chris, Hammersmith, 20/09/2010 23:45
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it's funny but apparently poeple living in Harrow don't like Ken..shocker...lol.
This 'POLL' could be rubbished by any A level student and some GCSE stats students for it's total bias and leading questions. It's intellectually dishonest and all it shows is that the Evening standard and LBC want Boris to win..which is no surprise to anyome. It's flawed and useless, i'd ask for your money back.
- steve, abbey wood, 20/09/2010 17:12
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Having read your headline on the paper, could you please let me know what next weeks lottery numbers will be?
- Kieran, London, UK, 20/09/2010 16:56
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I can't believe ComRes took your money for this skewed poll. It goes against all the rules of good polling. It's basically very wrong. I'd love to see a poll using the same methodology a day before election day, just so you can see how flawed this is.
- Jon, London, UK, 20/09/2010 16:34
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So the social climbing Mail readers of the suburbs are going to lumber us with a second term of the waffling scarecrow.When he takes away their freedom passes will they still blame Livingstone.
- colin, barking essex, 20/09/2010 16:29
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He will not get my vote nor for that matter at least a dozen people I know who are all Conservative voters until he stops his GLA Tory cronies from holding and being paid to be MP's or Councillors who thereby receive over £100k per year.
Many Boris supporters rightly ask what has he done and my example above is an indication of what he appears to be frightened of doing. Get your act in gear Johnson or move over and let someone else do the job properly!
- Mike, Sutton, 20/09/2010 16:14
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Fred it spot on.
This poll is ridiculous - there is no past vote weighting (that's basic polling methodology), there is no Lib Dem option, and, there are leading questions. The 'who do you support' should never be asked after previous, leading questions - ComRes know this as well, so I'm surprised that it's been constructed this way.
- Mike, London, 20/09/2010 15:55
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I can't see the point of a mayor everthing was running fine before 2000.All youv'e got now is another layer of tax.
- davo, spain, 20/09/2010 15:49
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Aar Kay Burley, De dums poor old Ken your chosen choice is not being supported by the ES, what tough luck, but then in all truthfulness he has'nt got too much support anyway aar.
- terry, london, 20/09/2010 15:14
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Aar Kay Burley, De dums poor old Ken your chosen choice is not being supported by the ES, what tough luck, but then in all truthfulness he has'nt got too much support anyway aar.
- terry, london, 20/09/2010 15:14
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This is hardly news as Boris very popular since day one!
Livingstone has cost me an arm and a leg as everytime I read about or see his smarmy face on the Standard Website I kick the computer screen!
Boris Loves London while Livingstone loved to experiment on London with his stupid socialist ideas.
- James from Camden, London, 20/09/2010 15:01
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All very well to go at Livingstone - and in many cases he showed appalling lapses of judgement (the Lee Jaspar affair for one), but the New Labour supporters of Oona King should pause and reflect. More people voted for "none of the above" (19%) to her paltry 9%. They should also remember that she managed to lose a very safe Labour seat (Bethnal Green) in 2005 thanks to her kow-towing to all of the New Labour message.
- Alan, Romford Essex, 20/09/2010 15:00
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Let's not bother with the vote or waste the money. Just extend Boris' term by another four years.
- Adam, Harrow, uk, 20/09/2010 14:25
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OOna King is a nobody, and Ken Livingstone is the day before yesterday's man - any questions.???????
- Alan, Essex, 20/09/2010 14:24
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If Boris was going to be hurt by the cuts thing, it would have happened. Nationally the Tories are neck and neck with a rudderless Labour party led by Harriet Harman but Boris is streets ahead of his rivals. I suspect the cuts have been hyped to a point where what actually happens will seem like an anticlimax. Labour and the unions are making out that public services will collapse. Unlikely - Cameron is not stupid and there is plenty of public service fat that can be trimmed (which I suspect is what really scares the unions).
- Kevin T, Beckenham, Kent, 20/09/2010 14:15
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Anti union - that will do for me!
- Galland, Abeville, 20/09/2010 13:39
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The ES campaigned for Boris last time.
- Kay Burley ate my hamster, Hackney, London, 20/09/2010 13:35
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Boris will get in the same way he did last time, on the anyone but ken ticket.
the majority distinctly loathe Ken, and his undignified conduct since losing (comprehensively) has only made matters worse.
- scotty, london, 20/09/2010 13:28
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That's not necessarily good news. Wouldn't you prefer Boris having fun, on behalf of us-all, at Westminster?
- Steve, London, England, 20/09/2010 13:25
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The Survey report, makes no mention of the BACKLASH 20th October's CUT-BACKS will engender.
BORIS has been very effective at blustering, buffooning and boombasting his way across every conceivable self-publicity photo-opportunity par excellence.
KEN has proven substansive achievements for London, those attributable to BORIS are few. There are still TWO Years to the next Mayoral Contest, during which times will get much worse.
We cannot yet sing 'Good Times Are Around The Corner'.
- CHRISTOPHER CROWDY, Chelsea S W 3, 20/09/2010 13:20
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Not if my vote has anything to do with it...
- Comeron, London, 20/09/2010 13:14
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Ken Livingstone has had his day, OOna King is a failed wannabee who couldn't hold a safe Labour seat as an MP and Boris Johnson is an overpaid fop who has yet to deliver on a number of promises. Some choice for Londoners. Why do we need a Mayor and the GLA? There was a time that Ken Livingstone argued against such. (when he was a Labour Councillor on the Tory led GLC). A great deal of time and money is wasted on this extra layer of government.
- bob smith, stratford, London, 20/09/2010 13:04
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wow. that's the worst case of framing in an opinion poll that i've ever seen. comres should be ashamed of themselves.
- fred, london, england, 20/09/2010 12:53
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Just confirmation of what we all knew all along.
Ken is a washed-up has been who spends his time reliving his glory days by stalking Boris at City Hall.
London loves Boris bikes, London loves the fact that Boris has frozen our council tax, London loves the fact that our Mayor is fun, and London hates the unions!
- Kate, Harrow, London, UK, 20/09/2010 12:51
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