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Barack Obama faces major defeat but hopes to keep control of the Senate
Paul Thompson in Miami2 Nov 2010
President Obama was today holed up in the White House as he and his advisers braced themselves for a voting disaster.
Republicans are poised to seize control of Congress as the American public turns its back on the Democratic party.
After two years in office Mr Obama has been warned by his political strategists to expect some of the worst mid-term election results in a generation. There has been talk of a “tidal wave” of support for the Republicans who have tapped into anger among Americans over high unemployment and massive spending by the Obama administration.
With the economy failing to pick up fast enough after so many promises of “change”, the ingredients have made for an explosive election.
More than 90 million people will vote today in what is effectively a referendum on the President and his policies since he swept to power in 2008.
Republicans said the results will speak volumes for what the American people are thinking — and what they think of Mr Obama. “The American people are in charge,” said Republican leader John Boehner as he vowed to shrink the size and cost of government if his party wins power.
If every polling prediction holds true the Republicans will take over the House of Representatives, where new laws are drawn up.
They are also set to make substantial gains in the Senate, and even if they do not seize outright control, will have enough bargaining power to hold up new policies. Senior Democrats accept they will lose the House but cling to the hope that they can maintain a slender majority in the Senate.
The Republicans need a net gain of 39 seats to win back control of the House from the Democrats. Pollsters are predicting a gain of six to eight seats in the Senate — two short of the number needed for outright control. Some are forecasting a repeat of 1994 when Republicans gained control of both the Senate and House while Bill Clinton was president.
His wife, Hillary Clinton, Secretary of State, told an audience in Kuala Lumpur: “A new president gets elected, he usually does an enormous amount in the first two years, and then everybody in America says that's either not enough or that's too much. So they send a message to the new president by voting out members of Congress of his party.”
The First Lady, Michelle Obama, told a rally in Nevada: “We have come too far (to turn back now). Sitting out the election will stop progress for people struggling to stay in the middle class, afford college or obtain health care.”
But whatever tomorrow's result — and it is now a question not of losing but how big the loss — Mr Obama will have to decide how he will pursue the remaining two years of his presidency. He can either be combative and fight tooth and nail for each of his policies or seek to make allies with Republicans who lean to the centre ground. That would give Mr Obama a chance to continue with his economic reforms as he limps through the next two years.
Vice-president Joe Biden predicted a “stalemate” with Republicans trying to scrap Mr Obama's trillion-dollar health care reform to cut back on government spending.
“All the various political scenarios are equally slow and grinding,” said Julian Zelizer, a professor and congressional expert at Princeton University. “If Republicans take control of Congress, that will make for real gridlock because if you have Congress divided with the White House's position, there will be very little possibility for agreement on any of the major issues.”
WHEN TO WATCH
9pm First exit polls. If young, black or hispanic voters fail to show, Democrats could be in for bad night.
10pm Polls close in Indiana and Kentucky, allowing TV to call results. If Dems lose two or three House seats here, could herald landslide.
Midnight Polls close in swing states of Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Ohio and Illinois. Delaware a Tea Party test.
3am Polls close in the West. Neck and neck races in Nevada, California and Wisconsin expected.
4am We should know whether the Republicans have done enough to capture the Senate.
7am Full results should be in.
THE EIGHT PIVOTAL SEATS
Nevada Senate: Harry Reid (Dem) v Sharron Angle (Rep)
Democrat veteran Reid is majority leader in the Senate and toppling him would be a major scalp for the Republicans. Nevada is a ripe battleground with the highest bankruptcy, joblessness and deficit of any state. Angle is in the Tea Party vanguard, arguing social security should be phased out and anti-abortion, even for incest and rape. Race going to the wire.
Kentucky Senate: Rand Paul (Rep) v Jack Conway (Dem)
The son of libertarian Presidential candidate Ron Paul, Rand is one of the Tea Party's most controversial figures. Conway claimed Paul tied up a woman while in college and forced her to bow down to a god named “Aqua Buddha”. Paul says Conway descended into the “gutter”.
Illinois Senate: Alexi Giannoulias (Dem) v Mark Kirk (Rep)
President Obama's former seat would be another huge prize for the Republicans. Normally a shoo-in for the Dems, its nominee Giannoulias is a photogenic 38-year-old financier who is facing a tough battle. Kirk is a popular local Congressman. Very close call.
Pennsylvania Senate: Pat Toomey (Rep) v Joe Sestak (Dem)
Toomey is a veteran Congressman hoping to make the step up to the Senate and looking hot favourite. However, Sestak has tried to capitalise on Christine O'Donnell's witchcraft confession over the state line in nearby Delaware. Seat matters because of its swing status in presidential elections.
Joe Miller (Rep) v Lisa Murkowski (Ind)
Miller hopes to bring the Tea Party activism to Sarah Palin's former state. This is a key test of the Republican establishment as Murkowski lost the primary to Miller and is running as an independent. Miller is a climate change sceptic and wants unemployment benefits to be scrapped. If he wins well, Miller could even run for president in 2016.
California Governor: Meg Whitman (Rep) v Jerry Brown (Dem)
The former chief of eBay has thrown huge amounts of cash in the hope of succeeding Arnold Schwarzenegger. Brown, a governor of the state from the Seventies, is a formidable foe. If Whitman wins, she will be as high profile as another Republican governor — Ronald Reagan.
Delaware Senate: Christine O'Donnell (Rep) v Chris Coons (Dem)
O'Donnell is one of the Tea Party's pin-ups, having upset the odds to beat a mainstream Republican for the nomination. The Democrats have been delighted with her quirky views, including a dalliance with the occult. If she fails to take the seat from Coons, that could rob her party of the 10 seats needed to clinch the Senate.
Indiana Congress 9th district: Baron Hill (Dem) v Todd Young (Rep)
The staid Hill faces a tough challenge from Young, a former Marine turned lawyer who could provide the Republicans with a significant victory. If Young wins, it could herald the biggest landslide for years. Hill voted for health care reform and the result will be seen as a referendum on one of Obama's main policies.
Reader views (1)
"Sitting out the election will stop progress for people struggling to stay in the middle class, afford college or obtain health care,” claims the president's wife.
Aside from noting the ridiculous claim that they are trying to preserve the very things they are in the process of tearing apart and reforming in their own image, I have two questions - why do the Democrats insist on calling their ruinously regressive socialist policies "progressive", and where does Hillary Clinton get the gall to dismiss the provoked anger of millions of betrayed Americans at her party as a mere protest vote? She is utterly incapable of understanding that the government that she is a part of; the government that her political party currently controls entirely - is responsible for foisting unworkable, unwieldy, undemocratic controls over a people who grew up thinking THEY had control over their own lives!
Sure - my opinions reflect bias against the left. Opinions are allowed in a truly democratic system after all. What she is showing is contemptuously blind arrogance though, as all of the rest of the Democratic leadership do, for the people they are there to serve.
It's not a protest vote. It's self defence in a mugging of the American voters.
- Rogan, Irving, 02/11/2010 15:22
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