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Conservatives set to seize 12 London seats... but no majority
Joe Murphy, Political Editor12 Apr 2010
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David Cameron's Conservatives have a clear lead among London voters and are poised to snatch a dozen seats from Labour and the Liberal Democrats, a Standard poll reveals today.
In the first election survey of Londoners by YouGov, the Tories are in first place on 38 per cent, up six points since the 2005 election. Labour are on 35 per cent, down four. The Liberal Democrats are down by six to 16 per cent.
The findings are bitter-sweet for Mr Cameron. The swing since the last general election is enough to make him leader of the biggest political party and probably the Prime Minister. But it is not big enough to give him the clear authority of an overall majority in the Commons, plunging politics into the uncertainty of a hung parliament.
Labour would be wiped out in eight seats — Battersea, Ealing Central & Acton, Westminster North, Harrow East, Eltham, Hendon, Brentford & Isleworth and Hammersmith — in a uniform swing across London.
The survey puts Ukip on four per cent with the Greens on three. The British National Party polled three per cent, showing no sign of a London breakthrough.
It shows the London picture little changed since the last YouGov/Evening Standard survey last month.
Labour has the consolation of looking likely to win back the Bethnal Green & Bow seat won by George Galloway in 2005. And on the basis of these figures, Gordon Brown is doing well enough to deny the Tories a victory over Transport Minister Sadiq Khan in Tooting, and to keep Left-wing champion Jon Cruddas at Dagenham and Rainham.
The effect of changes in constituency boundaries can be seen on the Standard's election map. Croydon Central was won by the Tories but is coloured red because the boundary changes make it a nominal Labour seat based on 2005 voting patterns. While Hammersmith is an entirely new constituency which has been classed nominally Labour based on 2005 voting patterns.
Our map, like the BBC and most media, uses calculations by top academics Rallings & Thrasher.
YouGov polled 1,310 Londoners between April 4 and April 11.
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The Tory leader visits Fuller's brewery in Chiswick
Reader views (17)
I was contacted by YouGov. I told them I would be voting Labour. I LIED!!!
David Furness
British National Party
Prospective Parliamentary Candidate for Ealing North
- David Furness, Northolt, UK, 13/04/2010 10:48
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Ahhhhh Keith Price. Hint: "Champagne Socialism" isn't a phrase that was plucked out of thin air. Repeating the obvious about the Kinnocks, Blairs and the like would presumably go straight over your head though, wouldn't it.
Another hint: Look up the word disingenuous.,
- Rogan, Irving, 13/04/2010 07:22
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Postal scams are a corruption of our electoral system.
Clearly they are open to fraud.
Nu Labour benefits mostly from these scams Why are they not stopped.
Conservatives can still win.
- Patrick Mc Crossan, London Lambeth, 12/04/2010 18:41
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Keith Price, Luton England - No they won't.
- Abominable Snow Man, London, 12/04/2010 16:21
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@Keith Price. How is Luton? Still we have Brown's minorities spitting at our brave soldiers. Have your hallucinations about class. @Dhanraj: your Brown says you should be apeaking English!
- James, London, 12/04/2010 16:18
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I do not believe that the polls represent a true reflection of voter intentions in Hammersmith and Fulham. As a resident in Shepherds Bush, the born again Christian crednetials of Saun Bailey fill me with horror and dread as a literal interpreation of the Bible involves the denial of statehood to the Palestinian people in wat Christians deem the "promised land"
- Maxine Fraser, london, 12/04/2010 16:17
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That is bad news for labour! The writing is on the wall.
- John, London, 12/04/2010 15:21
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class discrimination is no different to racial discrimination"
It's actually a lot different. When the voters discover the wealth and background of the Tory candidates, eg david Cameron, and George osborne, and the now disgraced Chris Grayling, they will think again about giving them their vote
- Keith Price, Luton England, 12/04/2010 15:06
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@VoluntaryistUK. I think that it might be time to see your GP.
- Dectora, London, 12/04/2010 14:57
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@Voluntaryist.Uk
You will definitely influence others; they will think you are potty.
- Frank, London, 12/04/2010 14:44
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Response to Dhan Raj, Basildon; ignorant stuff pal, class discrimination is no different to racial discrimination
- Jermaine Mann, Battersea, 12/04/2010 14:37
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Voluntaryist.Uk -
I just hope you're not planning on using the NHS, public transport, or any other public services, in the next few years. Even using public roads would, of course, render your statement void.
- Anon, oxford, 12/04/2010 14:36
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Dhan Raj,
How long have you been here?Your English is appalling!
- Steve, London, 12/04/2010 14:34
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on the day of election (May 6, 2010) I will attend the local voting station and I will present the following to the clerk of records, I will have posters & hand outs as well. Who knows, I may well influence others too?
STATEMENT OF WITHDRAWAL OF CONSENT TO BE GOVERNED
ISSUED TO THE GOVERNMENT AGENCIES AND AGENTS OF: THE UNITED KINGDOM of GREAT BRITAIN & NORTHERN IRELAND
PLEASE NOTE THAT ON THIS DATE: MAY 06, 2010
I; My Name (or yours) RESIDING AT My House, (or yours).
DID PRESENT MYSELF TO THE VOTE POLLING STATION IN THE VILLAGE OF (where I live).
I STATED THE FOLLOWING TO CLERK OF RECORDS:
" I WILL NOT VOTE.
I HEREBY RESCIND ANY AND ALL CONTRACTS BETWEEN MYSELF AND ANY GOVERNMENT THAT WILL RESULT FROM THIS VOTE.
I WITHDRAW MY CONSENT TO BE GOVERNED BY OTHERS.
I RECLAIM MY COMMON LAW RIGHT TO BE ACKNOWLEDGED AS A SOVEREIGN BRITON.
I WILL NOT ABIDE BY ANY FALSE STATUTE, RULE, OR LAW OTHER THAN COMMON LAW.
I WILL NOT DISTURB THE PEACE,
I WILL NOT CAUSE HARM TO OTHERS,
I WILL NOT ENTER INTO FALSE CONTRACT WITH OTHERS.
THIS STATEMENT IS HEREBY ISSUED TO ANY AND ALL GOVERNMENT AGENCIES AND AGENTS OF THE UNITED KINGDOM of GREAT BRITAIN & NORTHERN IRELAND."
WITNESSED THIS DAY: _________________
NAMES OF WITNESS: ____________________ , ____________________
SIGNATURE OF WITNESS: ____________________ , __________________
- Voluntaryist.Uk, axminster, devon, 12/04/2010 14:21
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London Polls by publish date
Con/ Lab/ LD
25 April (09) 45/33/16
2 March 39/35/17
23 March 40/31/ 18
12 April 38/35/16
Conservatives -2 and Labour +4 since the last poll. Thats a *3%* swing from Conservative to Labour since the last YG poll for the ES on 23rd March.
Thats less of a swing then the UNS at the moment.
Fascinating....
- Somerset Rebel, Sheffield UK, 12/04/2010 14:21
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Croydon Central is not currently a Labour seat, and is instead held by former Conservative Andrew Pelling.
Mr Pelling is a very personable chap. Unfortunately, he committed the cardinal sins of divorcing his first wife and then being divorced by his second, amidst allegations that he assaulted her. Despite the police view that there was no case to answer, Croydon Conservatives dumped him in a hypocritical fit. This caused him to suffer depression - fortunately he has made a complete recovery.
Local Tories were willing to forgive Councillor Maria Gatland her gun-running for the IRA and Croydon South MP, Richard Ottaway, his appearance in the expenses scandal - but no mercy for poor Andrew.
He is now standing as an independent, running against the official Tory candidate, Councillor Gavin Barwell - who just happens to be an assistant to somebody called Lord Ashcroft. It is possible that this will split the Tory vote and so - together with some boundary changes - will allow Labour Councillor Gerry Ryan to pick up this very marginal seat. We shall see.
Revenge is truly a dish best served cold - and Andrew makes a mean gazpacho.
- C Nichol, London, 12/04/2010 14:21
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A gret pity as the tide of gentrification and yuppiedom moves into Batersea and other areas.
- Dhan Raj, Basildon, 12/04/2010 14:21
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