There must be few things more frustrating for an economist than to write a book predicting how the world is going to fall into another economic crisis and then see much of what they have predicted happen before it is published... more
Modern economies run on oil and the world is full of charts which show all too clearly the links between its price and unemployment. When the oil price rises, economic activity slows and about a year after the price spike unemployment rises... more
City Comment: A recently published paper “The Geddes Axe” contains the fact that no British Government since 1922 has successfully cut public spending... more
City Comment: UK house prices should have fallen a lot further than they have done in this recession, or so many economists would have us believe... more
City Comment: The success of new arrivals in the Stock Exchange since the implementation of European directive Mifid does not mean they are making any money... more
City Comment: It is one thing to say government spending is too high and needs to be cut — it is quite another to say this can be achieved within weeks of a new government taking office... more
City comment: When asked what makes them most nervous about the next 12 months, most fund managers and businessmen come up with the same answer - the bursting of the Chinese bubble... more
The great paradox of this recession is how few firms have gone bust. Here we are with the most abrupt and severe downturn since the depression of the 1930s, and yet businesses seem to be surviving it far better than anyone had predicted and with a remarkably low rate of major-name casualties. Woolworths has gone but among high-profile firms, even in the vulnerable retail sector, that is about it ... more
Something has gone terribly wrong at Rio Tinto. The chart of the share price looks like a spoil mountain outside one of its mines, and it has achieved the impressive feat of alienating its biggest shareholders by not asking them for money. It's now on the brink of a blunder that threatens its whole future. ... more
The banks should still have enough capacity to lend for deserving corporate causes, particularly if they are genuine in trying to go back to their roots... more
No wonder bankers take outrageous risks. If they come off, they can go and set up their own charitable foundation, and if they fail, everyone else pays the bill... more
Anthony Hilton believes we should not be surprised that one of the big Chinese players now seems to own about 1% of most of the companies in the FTSE index... more
Recession in the air, negative equity, banks with burned fingers, credit still very tight, the pound under pressure and the Chancellor preparing to borrow a billion pounds every week. Welcome back to the 1990s... more
Northern Rock is hiring hundreds of new staff to cope with an expected flood of customers getting into difficulty making their mortgage repayments... more
An alarming parallel can be drawn between what is happening in the world economy today and what happened in the US in the run-up to and immediately after the Wall Street Crash of 1929... more
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